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    Scientists in Desperate Race With Bird Flu

    Will Killer Flu Bug Emerge Before We Are Ready?

    A Bird Flu Pandemic continued...

    "I am not reassured that because it hasn't happened yet it will not occur," Hayden says. "I think we are watching an evolving event. There is real concern that either through transport of poultry or migratory birds, the virus will spread further. And that will increase the possibility it will reassort with a human virus or adapt to humans. Then one would be into a pandemic event."

    Pandemic flu -- a flu bug that sweeps the globe -- happens every 10 to 40 years, says Stephen Morse, PhD, founding director of the Center for Public Health Preparedness at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health.

    "All of us virologists and infectious disease epidemiologists who worry about flu for a living, we all feel a pandemic is virtually inevitable -- as inevitable as any unpredictable event can be," Morse tells WebMD. "We don't know if it will be a 1918-like epidemic, which is what we all fear -- the worst natural disaster we know of in history -- or whether it will be more of a standard pandemic like 1957 or 1968, where we have 4 million deaths rather than 100 million."

    But if the next pandemic is bird flu, there really is no precedent. The terrible 1918 flu had a mortality [death] rate of only 2%, Morse says.

    "The extra charge on that bomb is that H5N1 bird flu has a high mortality rate," he says. "That is one of the things that is very worrisome about this virus: A pandemic would mean a lot of people who are very sick. An H5 pandemic would be something very serious to contemplate."

    Race Against Time

    Nobody knows whether bird flu really will cause a pandemic. But researchers, governments, and drug companies are taking it very, very seriously.

    There's already a prototype vaccine. This vaccine may not match the pandemic virus that eventually breaks out. But making it, testing it, and licensing it will greatly speed a better vaccine should the need arise, Treanor says.

    The current vaccine requires two high-dose shots, many weeks apart. Treanor and others already are working on higher-potency vaccines. And the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases today announced that it is working with a drug company to use new technology to rapidly produce live vaccines using weakened, genetically engineered flu viruses. Such vaccines could protect against any possible flu virus.

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