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Swine Flu Spreads, Fall Flu Season Looms

Health Officials Warn About Swine Flu's Potential in Fall Even as Some Guidelines Are Eased
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WebMD Health News
Reviewed by Louise Chang, MD

May 7, 2009 -- H1N1 swine flu is spreading faster and wider in the U.S. That's worrisome -- but more and more, health officials are fretting about what might happen this fall.

So far, H1N1 swine flu disease has been milder than originally feared. That's led the CDC to relax some of its original guidelines.

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Schools and day care centers need no longer close if a few kids get the new flu. And in communities with known H1N1 outbreaks, the CDC no longer recommends confirmatory H1N1 lab tests for otherwise healthy people with mild flu symptoms.

But that doesn't mean anybody should relax, acting CDC Director Richard Besser, MD, said at today's H1N1 swine flu briefing.

"We are not seeing any sign of this petering out. We are still on the upswing of the epidemic curve," Besser said.

The number of cases is expected to rise as the new flu spreads across the country. But the hope and expectation is that, aided by the warm summer weather that flu bugs don't like, the rate of spread will slow.

That may only be the lull before the storm, Besser warned. What worries health officials is what will happen this fall when traditional flu season begins.

"We don't know what the fall will bring," Besser said. "What has been seen with previous outbreaks is flu goes away in the summer. But during the winter flu spreads better, so the virus could go away and come back."

Besser urged Americans to take advantage of this breathing room. True, H1N1 swine flu could just go away for a number of reasons. On the other hand, it could just as easily become more severe as it picks up elements from seasonal flu bugs.

"This period of time before the fall is critically important for community preparedness should this virus come back in a severe form," Besser said.

There's a lot that governments, communities, and businesses can do. But Besser strongly urged individuals to prepare at the family level. He stressed hand washing, staying home when sick, and covering coughs. He also pointed families to the CDC's pandemic flu web site.

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