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    Diabetes Rates May Double Worldwide by 2030


    WebMD Health News

    April 26, 2004 -- The number of people with diabetes will double worldwide by 2030, according to new estimates from researchers at the World Health Organization (WHO) and several European universities.

    Although the U.S. is expected to experience a far more rapid increase in diabetes rates, the study suggests the greatest relative increases will be in the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, and India.

    That's because researchers say deaths due to infectious diseases as well as maternal and infant deaths in developing countries are expected to continue to drop in the next 30 years. Meanwhile, as diabetes rates climb in these areas, deaths due to related diseases, such as heart disease, will increase and account for a larger proportion of deaths in developing countries.

    According to the study, published in the May issue of Diabetes Care, the top 10 countries with the highest number of estimated diabetes cases for 2000 and 2030 are as follows:

    2000

    2030

    Rank

    Country

    People with diabetes (millions)

    Country

    People with diabetes (millions)

    1

    India

    31.7

    India

    79.4

    2

    China

    20.8

    China

    42.3

    3

    U.S.

    17.7

    U.S.

    30.3

    4

    Indonesia

    8.4

    Indonesia

    21.3

    5

    Japan

    6.8

    Pakistan

    13.9

    6

    Pakistan

    5.2

    Brazil

    11.3

    7

    Russian Federation

    4.6

    Bangladesh

    11.1

    8

    Brazil

    4.6

    Japan

    8.9

    9

    Italy

    4.3

    Philippines

    7.8

    10

    Bangladesh

    3.2

    Egypt

    6.7

    Diabetes Epidemic Growing Ahead of Schedule

    The study shows that the three countries with the most people with diabetes are expected to remain India, China, and the U.S. But researchers predict an even higher increase than the CDC predicted in 2001.

    The CDC study projected that the number of Americans diagnosed with diabetes would reach 29 million by 2050, but this study estimates there will be more than 30 million Americans with diabetes as early as 2030. Researchers say the new estimate is based on the fact that up to 50% of people with diabetes do not know they have the disease, and their projection is based on people with both diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes.

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