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    Tally of Uninsured Americans Likely to Stay High

    March 3, 2000 (Washington) -- About 44 million Americans -- more than 18% of the nonelderly population -- have no health coverage. And even with the enactment of widely touted tax subsidies to boost health coverage, the ranks of the nation's uninsured are unlikely to dip much below where they are now, several experts predicted at a congressional briefing Friday.

    Proposals to create individual tax credits or refunds for the purchase of health insurance have become politically popular. Various members of Congress, presidential candidates, and health industry groups have suggested "incremental" tax-based measures. And while these plans may be a more palatable alternative to earlier plans, such as President Clinton's failed attempt last decade to mandate that employers provide or individuals buy coverage, they may have little positive impact. Knocking down the numbers of the uninsured may be an intractable problem.

    At the briefing, held by the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Alliance for Health Reform, Kaiser's Larry Levitt noted that these programs' "popularity has exploded -- they have their advocates throughout the political spectrum."

    In this election year, purporting to address the needs of those without insurance has become a take-all-comers political bandwagon. Even "Harry and Louise" -- the fictional couple that the Health Insurance Association of America dreamed up to sink President Clinton's universal coverage proposal in the early 1990s -- are now about helping the uninsured.

    But according to Jack Meyer, PhD, president of the nonprofit Economic and Social Research Institute, "Tax-related reforms are not likely to substantially improve the cost-effectiveness of care, promote quality of services, or encourage health promotion. Nor are they likely to move us close to the goal of universal health coverage."

    Similarly, Jonathan Gruber, PhD, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economics professor, doubts the outcomes of such proposals. "Even very generous tax policies could not cover more than a sizable minority of the uninsured population." He said that a generous -- $13 billion annual -- program would cover just 4 million of the uninsured, leaving 40 million without coverage. Gruber co-authored a piece on this topic in the current issue of the policy journal Health Affairs.

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