Halper won't speculate on whether government or privately-run online marketplaces will win more customers. He thinks a substantial number of Americans will blow off the health law's requirement that everyone have insurance and choose to pay a tax penalty instead.
But how people respond to the health law’s new provisions next year is contingent on a complicated mix of politics, technology and market behavior – and it is very much an open question.
“I'm not betting on anybody,” Halper said. “The problem with trying to forecast the outcome, is that you really don't know how many people are actually going to buy insurance in 2014.”
This story is part of a reporting partnership that includes NPR and Kaiser Health News.
Kaiser Health News is an editorially independent program of the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonprofit, nonpartisan health policy research and communications organization not affiliated with Kaiser Permanente.
Sun, Sep 15 2013