Growing Old, Baby-Boomer Style
Experts examine the impact on U.S. society as aging baby boomers move closer to retirement.
Now, with the first of them turning 60, baby boomers are about to do something utterly conventional and predictable. They're going to start getting old.
In 1946, 3.4 million babies were born in the U.S., a jump of 22% from the
previous year. The surge of births continued, year after year, until 1964. By
that time 78 million "baby boomers" had joined the population, creating a huge
demographic bulge that flourished in America's postwar prosperity. These
children acquired more education than any previous generation; many grew up
projecting a rebellious, idealistic attitude that promised to reshape
Now, with the first of them turning 60, the baby boomers are about to do
something utterly conventional and predictable. They're going to start getting
old and begin developing health problems. They're also going to retire from the
In true baby boomer style, however, they will probably do these things in a
new way. Boomers are expected to live longer than any previous generation of
Americans. Of the 3.4 million born in 1946 -- including Bill Clinton, George
and Laura Bush, Donald Trump, Susan Sarandon, Steven Spielberg, and Sylvester
Stallone -- 2.8 million are still alive. The men can expect to live another 22
years, the women another 25.
By 2030, when the first baby boomers reach 84, the number of Americans over
65 will have grown by 75% to 69 million. That means more than 20% of the
population will be over 65, compared with only 13% today. More than 35% will be
One big question looms over these developments: Will those years be vigorous
and healthy, or will baby boomers sink into the pain and disability of chronic
disease? A lot hangs on the answer.
Will Boomers Stay Healthy?
Baby boomers now make up 26% of the U.S. population. A fragile, dependent
population of aging boomers would place tremendous demands on Medicare, and require lots of support from professional
caregivers and the boomers' own children.
Widespread obesity among boomers, combined with lack of exercise, could lead to an epidemic of diabetes, which dramatically accelerates aging and leads
to a host of chronic diseases.
Findings from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey show that
the percentage of adults who are obese has more than doubled from 15% in
1971-1974 to 34% in 2003-2006 for adults 20-74 years old.
Other signs suggest, however, that boomers will enjoy not just increased longevity but better
health as well. In 2006, American men could expect to live 3.6 years longer,
and women 1.9 years longer, than they did in 1990. Mortality from heart
disease, stroke, and cancer has continued to decline. According to the 2008
report, in 2005, the age-adjusted death rate for heart disease, the leading
cause of death, was 64% lower than the rate in 1950. The age-adjusted death
rate for stroke, the third leading cause of death, declined 74% since
That suggests that many boomers may be aging more slowly than previous
generations because of healthy habits, such as less smoking and more exercise. Maybe 60 really is
the new 50.
"The influence of aging on society depends on which view you accept," Gary
Burtless, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, tells WebMD. "Longer
life spans would be a burden if additional years were spent in a frail,
dependent condition, but I don't hold that pessimistic view. I think there's a
lot of evidence that people are healthier mentally and physically than they
used to be."