SARS Lessons Unlearned
Will SARS hit hard again this year or in the future? Experts go over what happened and what may be next.
Where Did SARS Come From -- and Where Is It Now?
Foshan, China, is in Guangdong province. As elsewhere in southern China, Guangdong markets feature exotic "game food." These live, exotic animals of nearly every imaginable kind are caged very close to one another. They're butchered and eaten as culinary delicacies.
Some of the earliest SARS cases seem to have been in people whose jobs involved dealing with these animals. Blood from people who handle these animals are more likely to have antibodies against the SARS virus than other people working in the same markets. And health authorities have isolated SARS virus from at least two kinds of these animals -- the Himalayan palm civet and the raccoon dog.
This doesn't necessarily mean the animals are the source of SARS. It's possible that the animals caught the virus from humans, and not the other way around. Pets owned by SARS patients in Hong Kong -- cats and dogs -- have been infected with the virus.
StÃ¶hr says it's clear that no humans now have SARS disease. This means there are only five ways the disease could make a comeback:
The SARS virus is hiding in humans. These people would be infected but without symptoms. StÃ¶hr finds this unlikely. Intense, ongoing screening of blood donors and health-care workers in Hong Kong finds no trace of active SARS infection. This fits with the idea that SARS can only be spread by people who are severely ill. "Asymptomatic carriage, if it happens, plays a small role," StÃ¶hr says.
- Silent transmission. If some people got infected but never had an immune response to the SARS virus, they couldn't be detected by SARS screening tests. "This has not been seen at all," StÃ¶hr says.
- The virus might get away from a laboratory where it's being studied. Labs studying the virus might store it unsafely. This happened twice. In the first incident, a lab worker in Singapore became infected. He did not spread the SARS virus, even though he came into close contact with 25 other people. More recently, a worker in a Taiwan military lab was accidentally infected in December 2003. This case is more troubling, as the worker traveled to Singapore after becoming infected. A WHO investigation -- including tracing of all contacts -- is under way.
- A more sinister possibility is the intentional release of the virus. "We do have to be concerned about this virus as it sits in refrigerators around the world," Low says. "I am worried about SARS as a bioterror weapon. It's already been shown to be very effective in bringing health care to its knees."
- If SARS came from animals the first time, it could happen again. "If the original animal reservoir is not detected, one cannot rule out re-emergence, especially as in China there has been no attempt to segregate exotic animals in the marketplace," StÃ¶hr says. "These animals have been allowed back into the markets and are still a threat." But Low sees this as a sign that the original emergence of SARS from animals was a one-time event. "There is no evidence it ever happened before and -- even though the same circumstances remain in place -- it hasn't happened since," he says.