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Gambling: The Pipe Dream Payoff
Nando Pelusi Ph.D.
Why high rollers think they'll hit it big. Nando Pelusi, Ph.D., says we'd bet the farm for a shot at the jackpot.
"One more roll, and I'll get it all back."
Everyone gets mildly addicted to something. For some people it is gambling. Square foot for neon square foot, the casino is the highest density den of absorption—and vice—known to man. But a casino is just the racy poster girl for a multibillion-dollar industry that flourishes from the office betting pool to the PowerBall jackpot—anywhere we defy logic and statistics in pursuit of an easy payoff. Gambling plays on at least two human universals: the urge to get something for nothing and the difficulty of giving up that dream, no matter how high the stakes or the odds against it.
Winning vs. Recouping Losses
For most of human prehistory, living through the night was not a given. For this reason, goes the evolutionary hypothesis, our ancestors learned to take what we'd now consider murderous chances in pursuit of food and mates. Those who continuously gambled and won became our forebearers, passing on a taste for the "off chance." The possibility that a big score could be just around the corner, but you never know where or when you'll hit on it, parallels modern gambling: One more rock overturned and you find dinner.
When you start losing, the darker side of that equation asserts itself: "One more roll and I'll recoup my money" becomes a formula for huge losses. No one is exempt. Remember the Barings Bank fiasco, in which the Rolls Royce of British banking was felled by a lone trader who kept making bad bets on derivatives, desperate to dig himself out of a hole? His gut overrode his training. We're all vulnerable to this risk instinct, the feeling that "I can and must recoup my losses."
When Risk Pays
For our ancestors, it was actually risky to avoid risk altogether. Sometimes the next big score really is just around the corner. If you find an edible critter behind one in 50 rocks, your foraging pays off, especially when the terrain is safe.
In this case, one in 50 is excellent odds because you're in a low-risk, potentially high-yield situation. It's sort of like online dating: Meeting 10 people for coffee is not a huge imposition, especially since you could be finding your future partner.
Playing the slots is designed to feel similarly risk-free, but in reality it's high-risk, low-yield, at least in the long run. You're practically guaranteed a net loss and have only the slimmest shot at the jackpot. Another disadvantage: Gambling doesn't teach you anything new, whereas the risks our ancestors took for survival had a steep learning curve—after overturning four dozen rocks, you've identified some helpful patterns.
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