If you’ve been diagnosed with breast cancer, your focus will be on getting the right treatment, but you’ll wonder, too, about your chances of surviving. Your doctor may call this your prognosis. It’s an estimate of how the disease will go for you. It’s just that – an estimate, or an educated guess.
Everyone's situation is different. Your doctor is the best person to help you understand your prognosis. Some of the things they will think about include:
- The type of breast cancer you have
- The stage of the cancer, or where it is and how big it is
- The grade of the cancer, which is how fast it’s growing
- Other details about the cancer cells, such as the amount of DNA changes in them, whether they have hormone receptors, and gene expression test results
- Your age and overall health
- How the cancer responds to treatment
What Are Cancer Survival Statistics?
A key part of making a prognosis is looking at survival rates. These are numbers that researchers collect over many years in people with the same type of cancer. These numbers are based on large groups of people. For breast cancer, there are two main measurements:
Breast cancer survival rates reflect the percentage of people who are alive 5 years or longer after their diagnosis. This means the numbers are based on people who were found to have breast cancer at least 5 years ago. Advances in diagnosing and treating cancer have led to steadily improving survival rates, so the outlook for those diagnosed today is likely better.
Relative survival rates don’t take into account the cause of death. They’re a measure of the percentage of people with cancer who have lived for a certain time after diagnosis, compared with people who did not have cancer.
Breast Cancer Survival Rates
The overall 5-year relative survival rate for breast cancer is 91.2%. This means that about 91 out of 100 people are alive 5 years after they’ve been diagnosed with breast cancer.
The 10-year breast cancer relative survival rate is 84% (84 out of 100 people are alive after 10 years). The invasive 15-year breast cancer relative survival rate is 80% (80 out of 100 people are alive after 15 years).
Relative Breast Cancer Survival Rate by Stage
Although much breast cancer information focuses on women and those who are assigned female at birth (AFAB), it’s important to understand that those who are assigned male at birth (AMAB) can also get breast cancer. In fact, about 1 in 803 people AMAB will develop breast cancer at some point in their life.
The overall 5-year relative survival rate for those assigned female birth for breast cancer is 91.2%. This means that about 91 out of 100 are alive 5 years after they’ve been diagnosed with breast cancer. For those assigned male at birth, it is 84% (84 out of 100).
The 10-year breast cancer relative survival rate for people AFAB is 84% (84 out of 100 are alive after 10 years). For those AMAB, it’s 74% (74 out of 100). The 15-year invasive breast cancer relative survival rate for people AFAB is 80% (80 out of 100 are alive after 15 years).
Relative breast cancer survival rate by stage
The survival rates by stage are based on the stage at the time of diagnosis. You’ve probably been given a number and letter for your cancer stage. Here, the terms localized, regional, and distant are used instead of numbers and letters.
Here’s what they mean and the 5-year relative survival rates for each.
The relative breast cancer survival rate will also be different between people who are AMAB and those who are AFAB:
- Localized breast cancer is only in the breast. This includes stage IA (pronounced “stage 1-A”), some IIA (“stage 2-A”), and some IIB (“stage 2-B”). For people assigned female at birth, the 5-year relative survival rate is 99%. For those AMAB, it’s 95%.
- Regional breast cancer has spread to nearby tissue or lymph nodes. This includes stage IB (pronounced “stage 1-B”), some IIA (“stage 2-A”), some IIB (“stage 2-B”), and all stage III (“stage 3”) cases. The 5-year relative survival rate is 86% for those assigned female at birth and 85% for those assigned male at birth.
- Distant breast cancer has spread to other parts of the body. This includes stage IV (pronounced “stage 4”). The 5-year relative survival rate is 31% for those AFAB and 20% for people AMAB.
Relative Breast Cancer Survival Rate by Age
Five-year relative survival rates by age at the time of diagnosis are as follows:
Women and those AFAB
- Younger than 45: 88%
- Ages 45-54: 91%
- Ages 55-64: 91%
- Ages 65-74: 92%
- Those 75 or older: 86%
Men and those AMAB
- Younger than 50: 83.6%
- Ages 50-59: 83.9%
- Ages 60-69: 85.1%
- Ages 70-79: 85.9
- 80 or older: 84.5%
Combining the Stats
Another way to look at 5-year relative survival rate is by putting together age and stage. Age at the time of diagnosis is broken into two groups: people under 50 and those 50 and older. These numbers are:
- Localized breast cancer: stage IA (pronounced “stage 1-A”), some IIA (“stage 2-A”), and some IIB (“stage 2-B”)
- Younger than 50: 97%
- 50 and up: 99%
- Regional breast cancer: stage IB (pronounced “stage 1-B”), some IIA (“stage 2-A”), some IIB (“stage 2-B”), and all stage III (“stage 3”)
- Younger than 50: 87%
- 50 and up: 85%
- Distant breast cancer (stage IV, pronounced “stage 4”)
- Younger than 50: 38%
- 50 and up: 26%
These numbers can be confusing. But they factor in a lot of information. For instance, it may be surprising that people with localized breast cancer who are younger than 50 have a lower 5-year relative survival rate than those ages 50 and up. Younger people AFAB are less likely to be diagnosed at an early stage compared to older people. They’re also less likely than older people to have hormone-receptor-positive breast cancer, which means hormone treatment isn’t a good option for them.
Statistics are averages. They don’t tell the whole story. And they certainly don’t tell your story. Ask your doctor to explain cancer survival statistics and how they may apply to your situation. But keep in mind, there’s no person or number that can exactly predict what will happen to you.
Racial Disparities in Breast Cancer Survival Rates
Like many diseases, there are differences in breast cancer relative survival between people of different races. There are several reasons for this, ranging from the types of breast cancer someone may have to their social and economic status. These can all have an impact on how people with breast cancer survive and for how long.
Cancer subtype
Aggressive cancers cause earlier deaths among people with breast cancer. Some subtypes of aggressive breast cancer, like high-grade tumors called triple-negative tumors, are twice as common among Black women, especially younger Black women, as compared to their White peers. These cancers include:
- ER+ and HER2/neu-positive subtype
- ER+ and HER2/neu-negative subtype
- Basal-like breast cancer
Breast cancer diagnosis
A diagnostic delay, or the time between when you first notice symptoms and when you are diagnosed with breast cancer, determines how quickly you’re treated. The longer it takes to get that diagnosis, the longer it takes to get treatment. The diagnostic delay for people with breast cancer varies among racial groups. Compared to White people AFAB with breast cancer, those who are Black had the longest delays (about 29 days but for many, longer than 2 months), followed by people who are Hispanic, Asian American, or Pacific Islander.
Men and those assigned male at birth also tend to be diagnosed with more advanced breast cancer because they may not be aware that they can have it and might not recognize the symptoms.
Breast cancer treatment
Aside from getting a diagnosis, people with breast cancer in some racial groups often have to wait a longer time to actually be treated. This wait is often longest for those who are Black. Nearly one-third of Black women had to wait more than a month for breast cancer treatment, while fewer than 20% of those who were White had to wait that long. Almost 20% of Hispanic people AFAB and almost 22% of Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders waited more than a month.
Economic status
People with breast cancer who live with lower income have a higher mortality rate. They are less likely to get regular health care, including mammograms, which could discover breast cancer in the earlier stage. Other issues for people who have low income are they may:
- Not have access to education so they can learn about breast cancer screening
- Live in underserved communities, which means they have less access to health care
- Not have medical insurance and can’t afford out-of-pocket care
- Not be able to take time off work to go to medical appointments
- Have other health care issues that they’re dealing with, giving less attention to breast cancer worries
Systemic racism in medicine
People in some cultures don’t trust the medical system or they might have been victims of systemic racism. For example, one-third of Black women say they’ve experienced racism from a health care provider. Research shows that people who are in racial minorities or are poor do face barriers getting effective health care. When this happens, people with breast cancer may be delayed in getting a diagnosis and treatment.
These are the relative survival rates for cancer, broken down by race.
Women and those AFAB
Number of years since diagnosis | Black | Hispanic | Indian/Alaska Native | Asian/Pacific Islander | White |
1 | 95% | 97.4% | 97.3% | 98.3% | 97.7% |
5 | 80.8% | 87.5% | 88.1% | 91.4% | 91.5 |
The statistics for breast cancer relative survival are different for men and those assigned male at birth.
Men and those AMAB
Number of years since diagnosis | Black | Hispanic | Other racial/ ethnic groups | White |
1 | 93.7% | 97% | 95.3% | 96.4% |
5 | 77.6% | 82.5% | 86.2% | 86.0% |
Breast Cancer Survival Rate Considerations
It can be scary to read statistics about survival rates 1 or 5 years, or even 10 years, after you’ve been diagnosed. But it’s important to remember that the studies we read today are based on information gathered years ago. It takes time for data to be collected and then for researchers to put the information together for a study. The statistics you’re reading today are based on information about people with breast cancer from quite a few years ago. For example, the relative survival rates for men, listed above, was taken from information collected from 2012 to 2018.
Research is also moving fast in breast cancer. So, if you were diagnosed today with breast cancer, the average survival rate for your type of cancer could be better now than what you see online. This is because the possible earlier diagnosis and treatment available now could be more advanced than it was 10 years ago.
Changing landscape
How doctors are calculating relative survival rates for breast cancer is changing as new tools are developed. One of the newest tools is called Predict. This is available for anyone to use, but it is not for everyone with breast cancer, so it should only be done with your doctor.
There are other things you need to think about when reading about breast cancer survival:
The stage of cancer
The earlier your breast cancer is diagnosed and treatment begins, the better the relative survival rate. But, if the cancer grows, recurs (comes back), or metastasizes (spreads to other parts of your body), the survival rate changes.
The type of cancer
Some breast cancers are easier to treat than others. The ones that are highly aggressive breast cancers, like triple-negative tumors, are harder to treat and can lead to a lower survival rate. This type of cancer also affects more Black people AFAB, who already have lower relative survival rates for breast cancer. They also don’t respond as well to triple-negative tumor treatment as any other racial group. Triple-negative breast cancer is very rare among men.
Other types that can affect survival rates are:
HER-positive tumors: Some breast cancer cells have high levels of a protein called HER2. If you are HER2-positive, you have the higher number of HER2 levels, your cancer may grow and spread faster than someone who is HER2-negative. But, if caught early enough, HER2-positive cancers often respond well to treatment. Unfortunately, Black women have lower 5-year survival of this type of cancer than any other racial or ethnic group.
Inflammatory breast cancer: Inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) is a rare form of breast cancer that is very aggressive. Compared to other breast cancer types, IBC most often affects:
- Younger people
- More Black people AFAB than White people AFAB
- Those who are obese
IBC also affects men and those AMAB, but usually when they're older.
Because IBC is aggressive and harder to treat, it has an overall 5-year relative survival rate of 40%. The rate drops to 19% if the cancer has metastasized.
Your overall health
Cancer treatment is hard on the body. It’s not always the case, but someone who is relatively healthy before being diagnosed with breast cancer will probably handle therapy more easily than someone who has other health conditions. This can affect your survival rate.
Your age
As noted above, how old people are when they are diagnosed with breast cancer can play a role in their relative survival rate.
Takeaways
Statistics are averages. They don’t tell the whole story, because survival rates depend on so many things, such as the type of cancer you have, if you had access to regular cancer screening for early diagnosis, and newer treatment options. So, the statistics certainly don’t tell your story. Ask your doctor to explain cancer survival statistics and how they may apply to your situation. But keep in mind, there’s no person or number that can exactly predict what will happen to you.
Breast Cancer Survival Rate FAQs
How are breast cancer survival rates determined?
Researchers take several things into account when determining median breast cancer survival rates. Some of the data they use include the type of breast cancer, the stage and grade, if there are HER2 proteins, age, and race, among other things.
Do survival rates differ by age?
Yes, breast cancer survival rates are different by age. For example, being younger – both women and men – has a slightly lower survival rate than being in your 50s or 60s. Being over 75 (for those AFAB) or 80 (for those AMAB) also has a lower survival rate.
Do survival rates differ by race or ethnicity?
Breast cancer survival rates do differ by race. Both Black men and Black women have lower survival rates than their White peers.
What lifestyle changes can prevent breast cancer?
You can’t prevent breast cancer, but you can take some steps to reduce your risk of getting it. Here are some tips:
- Limit your alcohol intake
- Don’t smoke
- Try to stay at a healthy weight
- Be physically active
- Consider breastfeeding if you have a baby
How do different treatments affect survival rates?
Treatments for breast cancer are designed for each individual person and the type of cancer they may have. Many treatments are highly successful and provide a full recovery from cancer. Some treatments can cause serious side effects, which can affect the overall survival rate. Other treatments may only partially work or not work at all.
