How to Predict Obesity Surgery Risk
New Method Lets Doctors Identify Which Patients Are at High Risk for Death
WebMD News Archive
How Many Die? continued...
What is clear is that many more people are having gastric bypass surgery
than even just a few years ago.
"Prior to 1995, only about 10,000 surgeries were performed each year,
and now we are up to about 200,000 [annually]," American Society for
Bariatric Surgery President Philip R. Schauer, MD, tells WebMD.
Schauer calls the new risk assessment model a good starting place, but he
says it is far from a complete list of factors that could influence surgical
"These researchers were able to identify five important risk factors,
but there may be 20 or more," he says. "For example, patients with
cirrhosis might have very poor surgical outcomes, but we would need bigger
studies to figure this out because cirrhosis is relatively rare."
'No Big Surprise'
The risk assessment tool can help patients better understand their specific
risk. But DeMaria and Schauer agree that being 'high risk' doesn't mean that a
patient should not have weight loss surgery.
In fact, these are the patients who could benefit most, they say, because
their risk of death is already so high.
"It is no big surprise that these patients have a high surgical
risk," DeMaria tells WebMD. "These are the patients who more than
likely have co-morbid conditions like diabetes and cardiovascular disease, so
their nonsurgical risk is probably pretty high, too."
Schauer cites a recent study that followed gastric bypass patients for eight
years after surgery and compared them to morbidly obese people who did not have
weight loss surgery. Even with surgical deaths, the bypass patients had a 65%
lower mortality rate.
"When patients talk to their doctors about the risks of having surgery,
they also need to talk about the risks of not having surgery," he says.
The Earlier the Better?
The observations could also be used to reassure patients who fall into the
low-risk category and to help patients and their doctors assess the impact of
delaying surgery, DeMaria says.
The mortality rate among low-risk patients in his newly reported study was
0.2% to 0.3%.
"That is very, very low risk," he says. "From a population
standpoint it argues in favor of giving up the notion that people should be on
death's door before they have weight loss surgery. It makes more sense to offer
it to patients who are younger and healthier before they develop the health
problems that are associated with the disease of obesity."